As early as next year, Canada’s population will decrease due to a single decision by the Canadian government. A new immigration plan was announced for the next three years, marking the first time in 10 years that immigration quotas have been adjusted downward.
This article will explain why this is happening, the reasons behind this decision, the extent of the quota reductions, and what future immigrants should consider in light of recent changes.
On October 24, the Ministry of Immigration of Canada published the new immigration plan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027. This is an annual procedure in which the government transparently outlines its immigration policy, indicating how many immigrants it intends to welcome each year. However, this year's plan reflects significant changes.
The primary challenges in the current policy involve:
There are other significant issues, all impacting the economy, as inflation rises and the government’s fragmented measures fail to provide comprehensive solutions, contributing to these ongoing crises.
How the New Plan Relates to Canada’s Population Decline
In recent years, Canada’s population growth has largely relied on immigration, though there is natural population growth from births and deaths. However, recent increases of nearly one million people per year have been mainly due to high immigration levels. With the revised plan cutting immigration significantly, Canada's population is expected to decrease by 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, with a projected 0.8% decline by 2027.
Which Immigrant Categories Will See Reductions
The overall immigration plan for 2025 is now set at 395,000, which is 105,000 fewer (around 20%) than previously planned when Canada aimed to accept half a million immigrants, a record-breaking number.
Francophones Outside Quebec
The government highlights the category of immigrants with at least intermediate proficiency in French. In 2025, francophones outside of Quebec are expected to make up 8.5% of all immigrants, approximately 30,000 people.
Economic Immigration
Under economic immigration—covering federal programs, provincial programs, business immigration, Atlantic immigration, pilot programs, and Quebec’s immigration program—the 2025 quota is now set at 232,150, down from the previously planned 301,000.
Notably, provincial immigration programs will see a significant reduction. Previously set at 120,000 for 2025, the new target is 55,000, a more than twofold decrease. Prospective immigrants using these programs should be aware of this cut, as fewer provincial slots will be available for permanent residency nominations.
For business immigration, primarily through startup programs that support innovative business ideas, the quota has also dropped—from 6,000 in 2025 to just 1,000. This sends a discouraging signal to entrepreneurs planning to relocate to Canada.
Family Category
In the family category, including spousal and parental sponsorships, the quota has been reduced from 118,000 to 94,500 for 2025, with further reductions expected in the following years, limiting the opportunity to sponsor family members.
Ukrainian Nationals
Ukrainian citizens in Canada or planning to come but unable to immigrate through standard programs have relied on humanitarian or HNC (Humanitarian and Compassionate) programs. The quota for 2025 has been slightly raised from 8,000 to 10,000, but this number will decline to 6,900 in 2026 and to 4,300 in 2027. In response to evolving economic pressures and a shifting labour market, Canada has announced important reforms to its temporary residence programs. The government, under the leadership of the Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, is taking decisive steps to reduce the volume of temporary residents while ensuring that those who come to Canada are better supported and equipped for success.
The goal is clear: reduce the number of temporary residents from 6.5% to 5% of the total population by 2026. This reduction will help balance Canada’s economic needs with the ability to adequately support new arrivals, addressing both labour market demands and ensuring the sustainability of the immigration system.
Conclusion
To be frank, this is certainly bad news and a significant change for future immigrants to Canada. It reflects the culmination of events that occurred in 2024.
Does this mean that immigration to Canada is closing? No, as 400,000 people will still receive permanent residency and immigrate in 2025. Additionally, there are temporary residents in Canada on work and student visas who continue to live, work, and build their immigration pathways. However, as mentioned earlier, French language skills will become key to immigration in the next two years, so pay attention to this.
If you are ready to learn French and want to take advantage of programs for francophones, focus on this and plan your immigration path. Explore the Canadian immigration service website, check which programs are opening, and consult with professionals who can help you determine the best path for you.
Each year, immigration becomes increasingly complex: eligibility points are high, programs are closing or being suspended, and quotas are shrinking. Immigration will likely become even harder in the next 2-3 years, so make sure to act now and not delay what you can do today.
This article will explain why this is happening, the reasons behind this decision, the extent of the quota reductions, and what future immigrants should consider in light of recent changes.
On October 24, the Ministry of Immigration of Canada published the new immigration plan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027. This is an annual procedure in which the government transparently outlines its immigration policy, indicating how many immigrants it intends to welcome each year. However, this year's plan reflects significant changes.
The primary challenges in the current policy involve:
- A shortage of housing, limited availability, and rising prices that have led to a housing crisis,
- Serious issues in the healthcare sector, including a lack of doctors, long waiting times, and delays, driven by both staff shortages and high immigration in recent years.
There are other significant issues, all impacting the economy, as inflation rises and the government’s fragmented measures fail to provide comprehensive solutions, contributing to these ongoing crises.
How the New Plan Relates to Canada’s Population Decline
In recent years, Canada’s population growth has largely relied on immigration, though there is natural population growth from births and deaths. However, recent increases of nearly one million people per year have been mainly due to high immigration levels. With the revised plan cutting immigration significantly, Canada's population is expected to decrease by 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, with a projected 0.8% decline by 2027.
Which Immigrant Categories Will See Reductions
The overall immigration plan for 2025 is now set at 395,000, which is 105,000 fewer (around 20%) than previously planned when Canada aimed to accept half a million immigrants, a record-breaking number.
Francophones Outside Quebec
The government highlights the category of immigrants with at least intermediate proficiency in French. In 2025, francophones outside of Quebec are expected to make up 8.5% of all immigrants, approximately 30,000 people.
Economic Immigration
Under economic immigration—covering federal programs, provincial programs, business immigration, Atlantic immigration, pilot programs, and Quebec’s immigration program—the 2025 quota is now set at 232,150, down from the previously planned 301,000.
Notably, provincial immigration programs will see a significant reduction. Previously set at 120,000 for 2025, the new target is 55,000, a more than twofold decrease. Prospective immigrants using these programs should be aware of this cut, as fewer provincial slots will be available for permanent residency nominations.
For business immigration, primarily through startup programs that support innovative business ideas, the quota has also dropped—from 6,000 in 2025 to just 1,000. This sends a discouraging signal to entrepreneurs planning to relocate to Canada.
Family Category
In the family category, including spousal and parental sponsorships, the quota has been reduced from 118,000 to 94,500 for 2025, with further reductions expected in the following years, limiting the opportunity to sponsor family members.
Ukrainian Nationals
Ukrainian citizens in Canada or planning to come but unable to immigrate through standard programs have relied on humanitarian or HNC (Humanitarian and Compassionate) programs. The quota for 2025 has been slightly raised from 8,000 to 10,000, but this number will decline to 6,900 in 2026 and to 4,300 in 2027. In response to evolving economic pressures and a shifting labour market, Canada has announced important reforms to its temporary residence programs. The government, under the leadership of the Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, is taking decisive steps to reduce the volume of temporary residents while ensuring that those who come to Canada are better supported and equipped for success.
The goal is clear: reduce the number of temporary residents from 6.5% to 5% of the total population by 2026. This reduction will help balance Canada’s economic needs with the ability to adequately support new arrivals, addressing both labour market demands and ensuring the sustainability of the immigration system.
Conclusion
To be frank, this is certainly bad news and a significant change for future immigrants to Canada. It reflects the culmination of events that occurred in 2024.
Does this mean that immigration to Canada is closing? No, as 400,000 people will still receive permanent residency and immigrate in 2025. Additionally, there are temporary residents in Canada on work and student visas who continue to live, work, and build their immigration pathways. However, as mentioned earlier, French language skills will become key to immigration in the next two years, so pay attention to this.
If you are ready to learn French and want to take advantage of programs for francophones, focus on this and plan your immigration path. Explore the Canadian immigration service website, check which programs are opening, and consult with professionals who can help you determine the best path for you.
Each year, immigration becomes increasingly complex: eligibility points are high, programs are closing or being suspended, and quotas are shrinking. Immigration will likely become even harder in the next 2-3 years, so make sure to act now and not delay what you can do today.
We will be happy to address any inquiries you may have regarding the article's content or relocating to Canada on either a temporary or permanent basis, and provide you with any necessary support. You can send your question by email: contact@pb-immigration.com